The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has begun, and updated long-range forecasts suggest it could be one of the most active in recent years. Many institutions have revised their forecasts upward, now expecting an average of 11 to 12 hurricanes during the season, according to insights from Aon Reinsurance Solutions.

The main factor influencing hurricane activity this year is the expected shift to La Nina conditions, which typically reduce wind shear, a phenomenon that can prevent tropical cyclones from developing.

In addition, above-average sea surface temperatures are expected to play an important role, as warm waters tend to promote tropical cyclone formation and intensification.

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In its latest report, Aon Reinsurance Solutions noted that these conditions, coupled with the potential for above-average monsoon rains in West Africa, could lead to a particularly active hurricane season. The monsoon rains could produce clusters of storms that move into the Atlantic, some of which could develop into tropical cyclones.

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Hurricane Beryl, which recently broke several meteorological records in the North Atlantic, is an early indicator of the season’s potential severity. Beryl became the first Category 5 storm ever to form in the Atlantic basin, where it persisted for nearly two weeks despite encountering intense wind shear and interactions with land.

The storm caused extensive damage in the Caribbean and the south-central United States, resulting in widespread property and infrastructure damage, flash flooding, power outages, and the deaths of at least 44 people.

Although Beryl was the second named storm of the season, the peak of hurricane activity has yet to come, with the climatic peak of the season occurring on September 10.

As weather conditions improve and ocean temperatures remain at record highs, the potential for explosive tropical cyclone activity in the coming months is increasing, Aon Reinsurance Solutions notes. The full impact of the 2024 hurricane season remains uncertain, but early signs point to a season that could bring significant challenges to regions along its path.

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