Munich Re noted that the 2024 hurricane season in the North Atlantic is expected to be very active, with current forecasts indicating that the number of tropical cyclones may be well above the long-term average.

Although the exact number of precipitation events is difficult to predict, the increasing number of storms increases the possibility of multiple precipitation events. There is also a greater risk of storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea this year, increasing the likelihood of storms in these areas.

According to its report, Munich Re expects above-average hurricane activity in 2024 based on weather conditions. Leading research institutes forecast approximately 23 named hurricanes in the tropical North Atlantic for the 2024 season. About 11 of them could develop into hurricanes, and five of them will likely become severe hurricanes with wind speeds exceeding 110 mph (177 km/h). ).

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The estimates exceed the long-term average between 1950 and 2023, which recorded 12 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.8 severe hurricanes. The forecast also exceeds storm activity during the North Atlantic’s periodic warm phase since the mid-1990s, which has averaged 15.7 tropical storms, 7.5 hurricanes, and 3.3 severe hurricanes.

Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through the end of November, as tropical cyclones are generally much less likely to develop outside of this period.

Transformation into La Niña phenomenon

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic are currently at record high levels, between 0.5 and 1.0°C above the long-term average, and are expected to remain high throughout the peak of the hurricane season.

On the other hand, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean is likely to transition into a La Niña phase, encouraging the development of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic.

Warmer ocean temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic provide more fuel for the potential development and intensification of tropical cyclones. The El Niño cycle in 2023 was characterized by strong El Niño conditions, which prevent the development of tropical cyclones due to vertical wind shear. However, La Niña conditions reduce high-altitude wind shear, facilitating the development of tropical cyclones.

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La Niña also affects storm tracks. An area of ​​high pressure evident between the Azores and Bermuda during La Niña phases often allows storms to move westward, increasing risks to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Researchers believe that climate change is contributing to a rise in the incidence of hurricanes and severe storms accompanied by heavy rain, although it may not necessarily increase the total number of storms. However, most climate scientists agree that climate change plays an important role in the exceptionally high water temperatures in the North Atlantic.

Anya Radler, meteorologist and climate expert at Munich Re, noted the importance of treating forecasts of storm activity with caution.

“However, this year we have two important factors that are likely to encourage hurricanes — the development of a La Niña phase in conjunction with very high water temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic, a hurricane-forming region. For this reason, the forecast appears to be more reliable this time,” Radler said. “.

Severe hurricanes that make landfall on the U.S. coast can cause billions of dollars in damage. Storm surge and flooding associated with hurricanes can cause severe damage inland.

Hurricanes affect not only the southern and southeastern states of the United States, but also the northeastern coast of North America, including Canada. Prevention through robust buildings and ideal early warning systems is crucial to reduce losses and protect human life.

Thomas Planck, member of the Board of Directors of Munich Re, stressed the importance of preventing losses. He stated that although it is impossible to predict a hurricane months in advance, investing in stable structures can prevent losses and save lives.

“That is why Munich Re has, for many years, supported the Insurance Institute for Home and Business Safety (IBHS) in the USA. This organization tests the stability of full-scale homes in a wind tunnel and makes recommendations on more robust construction methods,” said Plank.

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