Moody’s RMS Event Response estimates that insured losses in the United States from Hurricane Beryl will likely range between $2.5 billion and $4.5 billion.

These losses include wind, storm surge, and rainfall-related flooding. The National Flood Insurance Program’s estimated losses from this event are less than $300 million.

Estimates of total insured losses for Hurricane Beryl, including post-event loss inflation and atypical loss sources, are large. Insured losses in the private market are estimated to be between $2.5 billion and $4.5 billion, with a best estimate of $3.7 billion.

The wind and storm components of the industry’s insured loss estimate are based on an analysis of the combined fingerprints in Moody’s RMS 23 North Atlantic hurricane models. The inland flood component of the loss estimate was derived using Moody’s RMS US Inland Flood HD model version 1.2.

Moody’s RMS U.S. private industry hurricane and flood exposure databases were used to prepare private market loss estimates, while NFIP policy data in effect from FEMA was used to estimate NFIP losses.

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“Hurricane Beryl was complex and impacted across multiple fronts and regions,” said Jeff Waters, director of North Atlantic hurricane models at Moody’s.

“Estimated losses reflect property damage and business interruption in residential, commercial, industrial, watercraft and automotive lines of business, and take into account post-event loss amplification (PLA) and atypical loss sources,” Waters said.

Raj Vogala, managing director of model development at Moody’s, commented on the additional impacts from tree damage, infrastructure collapse, and hurricane damage, which could exacerbate damage and prolong repairs.

Fugala also noted that South Texas saw a significant loss in coverage from inland flooding on wind policies after Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and Beryl could produce similar impacts to a lesser degree.

Wind is expected to drive the bulk of Beryl’s insured private market losses in the U.S., although storm surge and inland flooding losses may contribute significantly in some of the hardest-hit counties in Texas. Residential lines will pay for insured wind and NFIP losses, while commercial and automotive lines will pay for water losses in the private market, especially in Texas.

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